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Poland is the latest European nation to find itself navigating the aftermath of a controversial election, with lobbyists playing the long game on many of the country’s longed-for changes to gambling regulation.
In a tightly fought run-off contest on June 1, right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki was elected Poland’s new President after securing just 50.9 percent of the vote.
That has set up a standoff between Nawrocki, who is backed by Poland’s powerful Law and Justice Party (PiS), and the incumbent coalition government led by Donald Tusk and dominated by PiS’s traditional rival, the Civic Coalition.
Tusk and Nawrocki are currently engaged in a war of words over alleged election interference, with the Prime Minister demanding a full recount.
But if Nawrocki takes office as is widely expected, he will be confronted with several issues of gambling policy.
The big topics will be familiar to experienced Poland-watchers, including demands to rethink gambling taxes and break up the country’s online casino monopoly.
Lobbying continues on both fronts, but local experts are concerned that progress on any legislative front will be slow with a President who has veto powers over a government which does not possess the three-fifths majority in parliament needed to overrule them.
There is also the issue of the 2009 “gambling scandal”, which implicated several former members of the Civic Coalition in dubious slot machine registrations and eventually led to that government’s collapse.
Its shadow looms large over any attempts by that party that could be perceived as liberalising gambling rules.
However, there are some glimmers of hope.
Data suggests that the online casino monopoly run by state-owned Totalizator Sportowy is struggling to restrict the black market, with some estimates putting channelisation at only around 60 percent.
Totalizator Sportowy is permitted under current laws to advertise its lottery products, but not its online casino offering.
Managing Partner at RM Legal in Wrocław, Marek Plota, said that while Totalizator Sportowy “has invested considerable effort into developing a competitive product, the limitations inherent to a monopoly, particularly regarding marketing restrictions, continue to hinder its effectiveness”.
Lobbyists continue to push for opening up the market, with Plota hopeful that meaningful progress is being made.
“I can tell you there is growing recognition, both in the industry and among some policymakers, that this model is unsustainable,” he said.
A turnover tax on betting is the other bête noir of the Polish gambling industry, with the industry having launched several attempts to force the government to switch to a model based on gross gambling revenue (GGR).
Still, the sector is growing solidly, dampening arguments that it is being held back by an archaic tax regime.
The market grew by around 25 percent in 2024, with GGR reaching around €900m, according to Vixio GamblingCompliance data.
Facing a potentially adversarial political calculus and the ghost of a past gambling scandal, pro-industry reformers are looking to the 2027 parliamentary elections to deliver some relief.
That may see gains for the far-right populist party Konfederacja, whose candidate came a distant third in the recent Presidential election, but which has been gaining ground over its rivals in recent years.
Konfederacja is the only party in Poland to support gambling reform, based on a libertarian political outlook. The party currently holds 16 of the 460 seats in Poland’s lower house.
“Realistically, legislative progress remains uncertain,” admits Plota.
“But the political arithmetic could shift quickly, either through tactical alliances or post-2027 coalition scenarios.
“It is not unthinkable that the current government may, under certain conditions, enter into temporary arrangements with Konfederacja to achieve specific policy goals. Alternatively, a future coalition with this party may put gambling reform on the negotiating table,” he said.
