Inside the Crystal Ball: Payments Compliance Trends Shaping 2026 and What Firms Need to Prepare for Now

Regulation may always be accused of playing catch-up with innovation, but the conversation during our recent webinar, Inside the Crystal Ball: Demystifying the Future of Financial Compliance in 2026 made one thing clear: payments firms that wait for certainty will already be behind.

Designed for forward-thinkers, strategists and innovators, the session brought together perspectives from a panel of compliance leaders inclduing, Kai Kahembe, Legal Counsel, Thredd, Martina Abejide, CCO/MLRO, Luminary Inc Finance, and Emőke Péter, Chief of Staff to the Chairman of the Board and Global Head of Public & Regulatory Affairs, Worldline, to unpack the payments compliance trends already reshaping the industry - and what firms should be doing now to prepare for 2026 and beyond.

A Compliance Landscape Defined by Acceleration, Not Stability

One of the strongest themes to emerge was just how compressed the regulatory horizon has become. PSD3 and the Payment Services Regulation (PSR) are nearing the finish line in Europe, while the UK moves steadily from open banking toward open finance. At the same time, digital identity frameworks, stablecoin regimes and AI governance are all advancing in parallel.

The key shift? Regulators are no longer satisfied with policy on paper. Increasingly, supervision is focused on operational reality; how compliance is embedded day to day, how responsibilities are mapped end-to-end, and whether controls genuinely deliver the right outcomes for customers.

For payments firms and banks, this means compliance in 2026 will be judged less on checklists and more on evidence: evidence of preparation, evidence of accountability, and evidence that regulatory change is anticipated rather than reacted to.

Technology as a Compliance Force Multiplier - With Caveats

AI dominated much of the discussion, particularly its role as an enabler of “continuous compliance”. From horizon scanning and regulatory monitoring to onboarding, fraud detection and internal risk reporting, the potential efficiency gains are significant.

But the panel was clear-eyed about the risks. AI introduces its own compliance challenges -  explainability, bias, model governance and auditability chief among them. Regulators are already signalling that “the algorithm did it” will not be an acceptable defence.

The takeaway for 2026 is not blind adoption, but responsible integration. Firms that embed legal, risk and compliance teams into AI design and deployment early will be far better positioned than those attempting to retrofit controls later. This is where narrow, purpose-built AI, focused on specific compliance tasks such as regulatory change management or risk prioritisation, is likely to deliver the most immediate value.

“The organisations that thrive in 2026 will be those that invest in both technology and the culture that enables it, giving them the agility to adapt to constant regulatory change.”

_{- Kai Kahembe, Legal Counsel, Thredd}

Open Finance, Digital Assets and the Expansion of Trust

Another defining payments compliance trend is the expansion of regulated scope. Open finance will extend data-sharing obligations beyond payments and current accounts into savings, investments, pensions and credit. Digital assets are moving steadily from the margins toward the mainstream, with stablecoins and tokenisation increasingly discussed in terms of integration rather than experimentation.

Across all of this sits a single concept: trust. Whether it’s AI-driven fraud, consent in open finance, or consumer protection in digital asset ecosystems, regulators are re-examining how trust is built and maintained in a technology-first environment. Compliance frameworks designed for a pre-AI, pre-tokenisation world will struggle unless they evolve.

Culture: The Most Underrated Compliance Investment

While technology featured heavily, the panel repeatedly returned to culture as the true differentiator.

Compliance success in 2026 will depend on leadership buy-in, early involvement of compliance teams in strategic initiatives, and a shift away from viewing compliance as a blocker or cost centre. Firms that treat technology implementations as people-change programmes - not just IT projects - are far more likely to achieve sustainable outcomes.

A recurring lesson was the value of early integration. Bringing compliance into vendor selection, product design and roadmap planning avoids costly rework and reduces regulatory risk. As one speaker put it, compliance works best when it’s baked into the cake, not sprinkled on at the end.

“Compliance in 2026 will no longer be about rules alone, but about whether firms can demonstrate real, positive outcomes for customers.”

_{- Martina Abejide, CCO/MLRO, Luminary Inc Finance}

Key Takeaways from the Discussion

Several clear themes emerged from the conversation:

• Regulatory change is no longer episodic — it’s continuous, overlapping and global
• Outcome-based supervision is replacing box-ticking compliance
• AI will reshape compliance, but only with strong governance and human oversight
• Culture and technology must evolve together to deliver resilience
• First movers will benefit, but only if they invest thoughtfully and early
  
  

Practical Steps Firms Should Be Planning for 2026

So what should payments firms and banks actually be doing now?

1. Strengthen horizon scanning capabilities
   Regulatory change is accelerating. Firms need systematic, repeatable ways to track developments across jurisdictions and assess impact early.
2. Document operational accountability
   Regulators increasingly expect clear ownership of compliance processes, not just policies. Mapping end-to-end responsibility is no longer optional.
3. Embed compliance into innovation cycles
   Whether launching AI tools, open finance products or digital asset capabilities, compliance must be involved from day one.
4. Invest in explainability and auditability
   AI-enabled compliance tools should enhance transparency, not obscure decision-making.
5. Treat compliance as strategic intelligence
   Regulatory insight should inform business strategy, not merely react to it.

“Timely preparation will be half the victory in 2026, because first movers who get ahead of the curve will be the ones who find the real value.”

_{- Emőke Péter, Global Head of Public & Regulatory Affairs, Worldline}

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The discussion highlighted the growing importance of automated regulatory change management and horizon scanning as foundational capabilities. As compliance teams face more regulation, across more jurisdictions, at greater speed, having a single source of trusted regulatory intelligence becomes a strategic advantage; freeing up time, reducing noise, and allowing compliance professionals to focus on interpretation, prioritisation and action - rather than manual tracking.
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Want to hear the full conversation?

Watch the on demand recording of the webinar now to hear how our panellist expanded on their thoughts and idea - or explore the Vixio 2026 Compliance Crystal Ball, featuring predictions from more industry leaders, to an even fuller picture.