Prediction: Shifting to Intent-Based Regulation and Trust-Centred Compliance

As we enter 2026, we step into a new year and new phase for financial services.

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Event-based monitoring and oversight, that is, catching harm after it manifests, will increasingly become a theme of the past, with intent and outcomes-based governance taking its place. We need not look further than the digital fraud space, where AI generated scams and human impersonation models are resulting in harm before payments have left consumer accounts, for example. Accordingly, my first prediction for 2026 is that we will see substantial progress in development of systems that prevent harm before it occurs.

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Regulators, I anticipate, will focus increasingly on model transparency, data provenance, explainability and require enhanced governance and stakeholder input.

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In parallel, digital asset markets will mature further. Tokenisation will expand as a presence in mainstream financial products. The question is no longer whether digital assets “belong” in the regulated financial system, but how they can be further utilised and new value realised. Regulatory frameworks for custody, capital, market integrity and consumer protection will converge with those of traditional finance. As use cases grow, the remnants of scepticism will fade, not least as markets experience transformative settlement efficiency within cross-border payment flows.

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I submit that the core of the 2026 financial evolution, however, will be something innately human: trust. Trust is built over time through consistency, reliability, honesty, and empathy. Trust is built by people. The next generation of compliance will only work if people; trust, and that includes feeling safe to ask questions early. To achieve this, we must bring teams on the journey.  Discussions around risk must be normalised, assumptions challenged, curiosity rewarded and knowledge sharing, celebrated not siloed. Compliance in 2026 will be redefined as a collaborative, forward-looking partner in innovation – no longer the disciplinarian, or reactive function it might once have been perceived to be.

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In 2026, compliance will solidify its reputation for delivering operational advantage. Firms will continue to weave regulatory change into strategic planning. In turn, we will see smoother implementation, reduced cost, and greater resilience. Ultimately, the organisations that thrive, will be those that invest not only in technology, but in the culture that guides them and enables them to succeed.